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pro vyhledávání: '"Allen, Sam."'
Probabilistic predictions are probability distributions over the set of possible outcomes. Such predictions quantify the uncertainty in the outcome, making them essential for effective decision making. By combining multiple predictions, the informati
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2411.16246
Renewable energy is becoming an increasingly important component of energy systems. However, renewable energy production is heavily dependent on the prevailing weather conditions, which are changing as a result of climate change. It is therefore nece
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2410.16556
Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts, existing ev
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2407.03167
Rank and PIT histograms are established tools to assess the calibration of probabilistic forecasts. They not only check whether an ensemble forecast is calibrated, but they also reveal what systematic biases (if any) are present in the forecasts. Sev
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2307.05846
Autor:
Allen, Sam
When predicting future events, it is common to issue forecasts that are probabilistic, in the form of probability distributions over the range of possible outcomes. Such forecasts can be evaluated using proper scoring rules. Proper scoring rules cond
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2305.07312
To mitigate the impacts associated with adverse weather conditions, meteorological services issue weather warnings to the general public. These warnings rely heavily on forecasts issued by underlying prediction systems. When deciding which prediction
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2209.04872
Autor:
Colvin, Geoff
Publikováno v:
Fortune. 9/16/2013, Vol. 168 Issue 5, p82. 3p. 2 Color Photographs.
It is informative to evaluate a forecaster's ability to predict outcomes that have a large impact on the forecast user. Although weighted scoring rules have become a well-established tool to achieve this, such scores have been studied almost exclusiv
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2202.12732
Publikováno v:
Operations Research Letters, Volume 40, Issue 1, January 2012, Pages 20-24
Current integer programming solvers fail to decide whether 12 unit cubes can be packed into a 1x1x11 box within an hour using the natural relaxation of Chen/Padberg. We present an alternative relaxation of the problem of packing boxes into a larger b
Externí odkaz:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2101.00441
Autor:
Rice, Hannah, Starbuck, Chelsea, Willer, Jasmin, Allen, Sam, Bramah, Christopher, Jones, Richard, Herrington, Lee, Folland, Jonathan
Publikováno v:
In Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport August 2024